Trump threatens tariffs in 50 days: What harm will it do to Russia?

United States President Donald Trump has threatened to enforce steep trading restrictions connected Russia unless a bid woody with Ukraine is reached wrong 50 days, arsenic helium announced an statement with NATO allies to nonstop much weapons to Kyiv.

The announcements connected Monday marked a displacement successful US overseas argumentation arsenic Trump’s endorsement of Ukraine comes conscionable weeks aft Washington announced it would intermission weapons income to Kyiv.

But Trump has expressed expanding frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin and hopes that tariffs and sanctions, arsenic good arsenic caller deals for Patriot aerial defence missiles, volition assistance bring an extremity to Russia’s much than three-year invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said connected Telegram that helium had spoken to Trump and “thanked him for his readiness to enactment Ukraine and to proceed moving unneurotic to halt the killings and found a lasting and conscionable peace”.

On Tuesday, Russia’s apical information official, Dmitry Medvedev, said the Kremlin did not care astir the “theatrical ultimatum” issued by Trump, adding that Putin volition remark connected the US proposals if helium deems it indispensable to bash so.

What did Trump say?

Sitting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte astatine the White House, Trump told reporters helium was disappointed successful Putin and that billions of dollars of US weapons would spell to Ukraine.

Donald Trump, 3rd from right, meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, left, successful the White House successful Washington, DC, connected July 14, 2025 [Nathan Howard/Reuters]

In caller days, Russia has launched hundreds of drones to onslaught Ukrainian cities, angering Trump, who had accused Putin connected July 8 of throwing a batch of “b*******” astatine the US. Trump has said that his displacement was motivated by frustration with the Russian president.

“My conversations with him [Putin] are ever precise pleasant… and past the missiles spell disconnected astatine night,” helium followed up connected Monday.

“We’re going to marque top-of-the-line weapons, and they’ll beryllium sent to NATO,” Trump said, adding that NATO would wage for them.

For his part, Rutte said that Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway privation to beryllium portion of the weapons deal.

Trump besides said that “we’re going to beryllium doing precise terrible tariffs [on Russia] if we don’t person a woody successful 50 days”.

Putin has yet to judge a proposal from Trump for an unconditional ceasefire, which was rapidly endorsed by Kyiv.

Trump besides said US tariffs connected Russian exports would beryllium priced “at astir 100 percent” and past threatened “secondary tariffs [otherwise known arsenic secondary sanctions]”.

Secondary sanctions, which would beryllium acold much punishing than US tariffs, would beryllium levied connected immoderate state that trades with Moscow, targeting its commodities concern successful particular.

A Ukrainian firefighter astatine a damaged residential gathering aft a Russian rocket and drone onslaught successful Kyiv connected July 10, 2025 [Genya Savilov/AFP]

What is Trump’s tariff menace to Russia?

Since Russia invaded Ukraine successful February 2022, Western countries – including the US, the United Kingdom, and European Union nations – person imposed 21,692 sanctions connected Russia, astir against individuals.

Key sanctions connected Moscow see import bans connected Russian oil, a price headdress connected Russian fuel, and the freezing of Russian cardinal slope assets held successful European fiscal institutions.

But the menace to enforce alleged secondary sanctions, if carried out, would people a notable shift.

So far, Group of Seven (G7) subordinate states person held backmost from taking steps that would restrict Russia from selling its fossil fuels elsewhere, to cardinal buyers similar China and India.

Lawmakers from some US governmental parties are pushing for a measure – the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 – that would people different countries that bargain Russian lipid and gas.

The measure would springiness Trump the authorization to enforce 500 percent tariffs connected immoderate state that helps Russia. US senators are reportedly waiting connected Trump’s OK to determination the measure forward.

Trump could besides enforce secondary tariffs done the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which lets the president restrict commercialized successful the lawsuit of a nationalist emergency.

Elsewhere, EU countries are adjacent to reaching an statement connected a caller bundle of sanctions against Russia, the bloc’s overseas argumentation main Kaja Kallas said connected Tuesday.

“We anticipation to scope a governmental statement connected the 18th sanctions package,” Kallas said earlier a gathering with overseas affairs ministers from the 27 EU countries successful Brussels.

How babelike is Russia’s system connected fossil fuels?

Fossil substance income inactive make important gross for the Kremlin. Seaborne lipid revenues, for instance, dropped modestly successful 2024 but stayed astatine adjacent pre-war levels.

This is owed to Russia’s “shadow fleet” – ships with opaque ownership structures and nary Western ties successful presumption of concern oregon insurance, allowing them to bypass Western sanctions.

So, portion G7 sanctions person reduced Moscow’s margins and accrued export costs, they haven’t chopped volumes to importing nations.

From 2022 to 2025, China has purchased astir fractional of Russia’s full crude lipid exports (roughly 5 cardinal barrels per day), with India pursuing intimately down astatine astir 40 percent.

Both countries besides import a ample magnitude of Russian coal. Other importing nations see Brazil, Turkiye and Egypt.

The EU, meanwhile, continues to devour ample amounts of Russian earthy gas, though Brussels has stated it wants to terminate each its contracts by 2027.

As for the US itself, higher tariffs connected Russian goods would person small interaction – exports to the US totalled conscionable $3bn successful 2024, oregon 0.7 percent of Russia’s full exports.

While fossil fuels present lend little to Russia’s gross home merchandise (GDP) than pre-invasion, Moscow’s dependence connected vigor products remains high.

Estimates vary, but fossil fuels inactive marque up 55 percent of Russian export revenues and 16 percent of its GDP (roughly $280bn)

That compares with 60 percent and 18 percent, respectively, earlier Russia invaded Ukraine successful February 2022 – a tiny drop.

How overmuch could Trump’s sanctions menace wounded Moscow?

A crisp diminution successful Russian vigor flows from secondary sanctions would astir surely pb to higher planetary prices, peculiarly for earthy gas.

“The interaction would astir apt beryllium greater connected earthy state prices than oil,” said Kieran Tompkins, elder clime and commodities economist astatine Capital Economics, successful a note.

He pointed retired that “the lipid marketplace appears to person capable spare capableness to much oregon little offset a nonaccomplishment of Russian exports”, owing to untapped OPEC supplies.

However, helium pointed retired that “knocking retired fractional of Russia’s crude and petroleum exports [on the backmost of Trump’s threat] could trim export revenues by $75bn oregon so.”

In turn, Tompkins said that could induce a “fiscal crisis” successful Russia, starring to “debt issuance ramping up, enslaved yields spiking and unit for wide fiscal tightening.”

Looking ahead, Trump’s 50-day connection volition springiness Moscow immoderate clip to travel up with counterproposals and hold the implementation of sanctions.

But Trump volition beryllium hoping that the menace of sanctions volition power Putin to enactment an extremity to hostilities.