How will the PKK’s disarmament play out in the region?

On Friday, 30 fighters from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) threw their weapons into a bonfire astatine a gathering successful Sulaimaniyah, a metropolis successful the autonomous Kurdish portion of bluish Iraq.

After hiding retired successful Iraq’s Qandil Mountains for 3 decades, wherever they reportedly trained for combat and planned attacks against Turkiye, they were present renouncing their equipped struggle.

The symbolic motion is the archetypal signifier of disarming the PKK arsenic portion of a rejuvenated bid process with Turkiye, which could extremity a 40-year struggle that has killed immoderate 40,000 people.

As the process unfolds, a question arises astir however this whitethorn impact the broader region, including the autonomous Kurdish areas successful Iraq and Syria.

Lack of transparency

In February, jailed PKK person Abdulla Ocalan called connected his fighters to afloat disarm, saying the clip for equipped conflict was implicit and Kurds could present realise their rights done politics.

Senior PKK leaders heeded the telephone successful April and agreed to a caller bid process with Turkiye.

The occurrence of the bid process mostly hinges connected reintegration and the governmental and taste rights Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan volition confer connected Kurds, according to Gonul Tol, an adept connected Turkiye and the PKK with the Middle East Institute deliberation tank.

While Erdogan and his far-right conjugation partner, Devlet Bahceli, enactment the caller process, the implementation remains shrouded successful secrecy, accidental analysts.

They judge the authorities is wary of disclosing details to debar nationalist backlash from immoderate nationalist quarters, who whitethorn spot immoderate concessions arsenic rewarding the PKK for equipped rebellion.

The process volition apt entail a wide amnesty for PKK fighters and giving Kurds the governmental and taste rights they person agelong demanded, which would let disarmed PKK fighters to instrumentality to Turkiye from bluish Iraq, Sinan Ulgen, an adept connected Turkiye and a elder chap astatine the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, said.

Only elder leaders would proceed to unrecorded abroad, without fearfulness of being targeted.

However, helium added, determination has been nary nationalist treatment of however the authorities plans to reintegrate erstwhile PKK fighters into civilian life.

“The deficiency of transparency raises the question implicit however overmuch nationalist enactment determination is for this initiative,” Ulgen told Al Jazeera.

Nurettin Ucar cries implicit the coffin of his girl Yagmur Ucar during the ceremonial of radical killed successful an detonation successful Istanbul connected November 14, 2022, that Turkiye blamed connected the PKK [Yasin Akgul/AFP]

According to Tol, Kurdish politicians are expecting Erdogan to marque immoderate governmental concessions to the Kurds done the precocious established Turkish Parliamentary Committee.

Failure to bash so, she warns, could illness the bid process.

How Iraq’s Kurdish portion factors successful the process

The nonstop fig of PKK fighters is unknown, but unsmooth estimates suggest determination are betwixt 2,000 to 5,000 successful the Qandil Mountains.

Since the 1990s, the PKK has reportedly plotted attacks against the Turkish authorities from these mountains with nary existent absorption from Iraqi authorities.

This dynamic continued aft the US penetration of Iraq successful 2003, which officially brought astir an autonomous Kurdish portion successful the north.

Turkiye has connected galore occasions bombarded PKK positions successful the mountains, often relying connected jets, artillery and helicopters.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which governs the Kurdish autonomous region, has ne'er interfered successful the fighting, noted Nazli al-Tarzani, an autarkic Iraqi analyst.

However, she said Iraq’s Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), whitethorn present effort to exploit the bid process if it succeeds.

They could exaggerate their relation successful the process to pull voters successful the upcoming nationalist elections successful November, she added.

“Things ever vigor up during an predetermination cycle, and they could usage the [disarmament] arsenic a point-scoring exercise,” al-Tarzani told Al Jazeera.

The different scenario, said al-Tarzani, would spot a resumption of struggle betwixt Turkiye and the PKK successful the Qandil Mountains.

She added that the KRG has beardown commercialized and economical ties with Turkiye and volition apt stay quiescent and successful the peripheries if the bid process collapses and struggle resumes.

On apical of that, she explained, the KRG cannot assistance Turkiye with specified a analyzable subject operation.

“They don’t person the capableness for a strategy of that scale, and it would beryllium rather costly. Also, I don’t deliberation Turkiye would privation to outsource. They would privation to telephone the shots,” she said.

The PKK’s incentives

The PKK has its ain reasons to laic down arms and spot done the bid process, analysts told Al Jazeera.

Salim Cevik, an adept connected Turkiye and a non-resident chap astatine the Arab Center Washington DC, noted that the radical is militarily anemic aft being driven retired of Turkiye successful 2016.

During that period, the PKK successful Turkiye was trying to carve retired an autonomous portion which would nexus up with its counterpart, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), successful Syria.

At the time, Kurds from Syria and Turkiye were joining the combat against ISIL (ISIS) with US support, portion expanding their power implicit majority-Kurdish and Arab regions successful bluish Syria.

But since March 10, the YPG has been negotiating its ain woody with Syria’s caller authorities – a adjacent state of Turkiye that came to powerfulness aft toppling erstwhile President Bashar al-Assad successful December.

Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, right, shaking hands with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander-in-chief Mazloum Abdi aft signing an statement to integrate the SDF into authorities institutions, successful Damascus connected March 10, 2025 [SANA/AFP]

Analysts antecedently told Al Jazeera that immoderate statement betwixt Syria’s caller authorities and the YPG would pb to immoderate constricted signifier of Kurdish autonomy successful Syria, but with greater oversight and power from the cardinal government.

“PKK expectations look wide … that Turkiye volition halt trying to undermine Kurdish autonomy successful Syria [as portion of the bid process],” said Cevik.

However, Tol said Turkiye inactive worries that PKK fighters could mobilise successful Syria if the bid process abruptly collapses, referencing the adjacent ties betwixt the 2 Kurdish factions.

“The Turkish authorities indispensable beryllium reasoning that they are going to person thousands of YPG fighters close connected their borderline if this happening doesn’t enactment out,” she told Al Jazeera.

Splinters and nationalist security

Although analysts judge disarmament should spell smoothly, immoderate PKK fighters could garbage to disarm if they are unhappy with the process oregon judge that Ocalan, who has been successful Turkiye’s custody since 1999, is retired of touch, said Ulgen.

“Turkiye is relying connected Ocalan to steer the full PKK conglomerate … whether they volition each perceive remains an unfastened question,” Ulgen told Al Jazeera.

Their practice volition hinge connected however soon Turkiye volition confer cardinal rights connected Kurds, helium added.

Burcu Ozcelik, a information adept connected Turkiye and the PKK with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), believes a splinter is precise unlikely.

She explained that Ocalan has remained influential successful the ideological improvement of the radical and that helium has retained the loyalty of PKK fighters since helium was captured.

In addition, she said, Turkiye appears to presumption the rejuvenated bid process, the disarmament of PKK fighters and their reintegration into civilian beingness arsenic imperative for nationalist security.

She referenced Turkiye’s humanities and progressively truculent narration with determination powers specified arsenic Iran and Israel.

Israel, successful particular, appears to presumption Turkiye’s determination power arsenic a menace to its powerfulness and docket successful the region.

Turkiye whitethorn beryllium concerned, said Burcu, that Israel whitethorn truthful effort to instrumentalise Kurdish equipped groups to thwart what they comprehend to beryllium Turkiye’s influence, regionally.

“In the aftermath of Assad’s autumn successful Syria, Israeli authorities officials were precise vocal of the Kurds being a earthy state to Israel and that Israel should enactment Kurdish autonomy,” she told Al Jazeera.

This anticipation is incentivising Turkish ministers to scope a woody with the PKK to thwart the anticipation of overseas meddling.

“I deliberation Turkey’s appraisal is that if it can’t reason the struggle connected its ain terms, past determination volition beryllium different actors looking to spoil the strategical dynamic for their ain favour,” she added.