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A idiosyncratic shops for groceries successful New York City, U.S., July 15, 2025.
Jeenah Moon | Reuters
Expectations are a comic thing. When we accidental that thing meets expectations, we thin to mean it successful a affirmative way, suggesting that a hurdle has been cleared oregon the effect is welcome.
But what happens erstwhile we expect thing bad, and the result meets expectations?
The U.S. user terms scale successful June, arsenic reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics connected Tuesday, matched the Dow Jones statement estimate. And determination was adjacent a pleasant surprise: Core inflation, which excludes volatile nutrient and vigor prices, roseate 0.2% connected the month, which was 0.1 percent points beneath expectations.
That said, some the header and halfway ostentation numbers, connected an yearly basis, deed their highest since February.
"The latest U.S. ostentation study practically confirmed that President Trump's tariffs acted to propulsion up user prices successful June," said Matthew Ryan, caput of marketplace strategy astatine planetary fiscal services steadfast Ebury.
Hence, portion the ostentation figures didn't astonishment marketplace watchers and investors — markets truly dislike unpredictability — the information that the downbeat expectations were realized inactive weighed connected stocks, which mostly fell connected the news.
As yesterday's marketplace movements exemplify — and arsenic galore of us, aft going done show reviews with our supervisors, cognize — sometimes, gathering expectations isn't bully enough.
What you request to cognize today
A preliminary U.S.-Indonesia deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that nether the commercialized agreement, U.S. exports from Indonesia volition look a 19% tariff, portion American goods volition participate the Southeast Asian state tariff-free. Jakarta has yet to corroborate the deal.
Nvidia CEO praises China's AI sector. Speaking astatine a proviso concatenation expo successful Beijing connected Wednesday, Jensen Huang named DeepSeek and Ernie bot arsenic "world class" models. He besides lauded Chinese companies' open-source attack to AI, saying it is simply a "catalyst for planetary progress."
The Nasdaq Composite hits a record. A 4% leap successful Nvidia boosted the tech-heavy index, adjacent arsenic the S&P 500 and Dow retreated Tuesday. Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Wednesday. Shares of Chinese toymaker Pop Mart slumped implicit 6% contempt issuing a bullish outlook.
ASML's second-quarter net smash expectations. The Dutch spot instrumentality shaper bushed estimates connected nett income and nett profits by astir $200 cardinal euros. However, ASML forecast its gross for the existent 4th volition come successful beneath marketplace expectations.
[PRO] Fund managers are bullish connected European stocks. A Bank of America survey of European money managers recovered that 81% of respondents saw upside for the region's equities successful the coming 12 months.
And finally...
Gold prices fell connected Tuesday, retreating from adjacent a four-week high, arsenic a humble emergence successful the dollar weighed connected the metal, though uncertainty implicit the U.S.-China commercialized statement kept investors cautious and constricted the bullion's decline.
Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Central banks are progressively buying golden from section mines arsenic prices surge
Traditionally, cardinal banks get golden done the planetary over-the-counter marketplace — typically centered successful London — wherever golden is transacted via large bullion banks, priced successful U.S. dollars, euros, oregon sterling.
However, 19 retired of 36 respondents successful the World Gold Council's latest cardinal slope survey said they are buying golden straight from home artisanal and small-scale golden miners successful section currency. Four are reasoning of pursuing suit.
— Lee Ying Shan