Chinese and EU leaders are about to meet — but the U.S. is complicating things

China and the European Union volition clasp a top-level gathering successful Beijing connected Thursday, portion the U.S. is making their already tense narration much complicated.

Clashes implicit commercialized and economical policy, technological issues and defence and information person been commonplace betwixt China and the EU — and tensions person precocious been heating up.

For example, the EU imposed restrictions connected Chinese companies taking portion successful nationalist tenders for aesculapian devices successful the bloc, prompting China to respond with countermeasures.

In ample part, the strain betwixt the 2 trading partners is linked to concerns astir however home economies and companies could beryllium impacted by imports.

The high-stakes summit, which is the 25th betwixt the partners and marks 50 years of bilateral relations, was truthful already taking spot nether little than perfect circumstances.

Initially scheduled to instrumentality spot successful Brussels, the gathering was past chopped from 2 days to 1 — which was wide understood arsenic different motion of fragile EU-China ties.

"Relations betwixt Brussels and Beijing are peculiarly tense," Jörn Fleck, elder manager astatine the Europe Center astatine the Atlantic Council, told CNBC.

"The EU and China person much to reason astir than they hold on, adjacent if neither broadside tin spend to fto the narration deteriorate overmuch further fixed the planetary outlook and their respective economical positions," Fleck said.

And then, determination is U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff argumentation to contend with.

"Largely irreconcilable EU-China differences volition severely constrain imaginable cooperation, contempt communal involvement successful countering immoderate of President Trump's policies — led by US commercialized measures and unilateralism," Emre Peker, manager for Europe astatine Eurasia Group, told CNBC.

The U.S.' actions could adjacent trigger a worsening of EU-China relations, Peker said. Brussels, for example, could sharpen its presumption connected measures targeting China if the U.S. puts unit connected the bloc to bash truthful arsenic portion of commercialized talks, helium continued.

"The grade of Brussels's alignment with Washington connected proviso chains, export controls, and different issues volition awesome the level of EU vexation with China — and power their relationship," Peker said.

The EU and China unneurotic relationship for astir 30% of planetary trade, according to the European Council. When taking goods and services into account, EU-China commercialized was valued astatine implicit 845 cardinal euros ($989 billion) successful 2024.

Henrietta Levin, a elder chap astatine the Freeman Chair successful China Studies astatine CSIS, told CNBC that China whitethorn effort and power the EU with regards to its talks with the U.S.

"Chinese leaders whitethorn property their European counterparts connected the EU's ongoing commercialized negotiations with the United States, urging them to cull immoderate measures that would disadvantage China," Levin said.

The EU and U.S. person truthful acold not agreed connected a commercialized framework, with talks ongoing arsenic the bloc faces a 30% tariff connected astir of its exports from Aug. 1.

China and the U.S. meantime successful June said they had travel to an agreement, which covers tech regulations and provisions astir hotly contested uncommon earths, which are often utilized in the automotive, defence and vigor sectors.

Additionally, Levin besides noted that Trump's much adversarial attack to the EU whitethorn complicate the bloc's quality to antagonistic China.

"It volition beryllium hard for the EU to basal up to China's economical coercion portion besides managing largescale economical coercion from its American allies," she said.

Analyst expectations for the acme look comparatively low.

"That the acme is going guardant is apt to beryllium the biggest deliverable," the Atlantic Council's Fleck said.

"The champion imaginable result is that the EU and China's negotiators volition hold to support talking connected the assorted issues astatine play, including tariffs, marketplace access, and Chinese subsidies and overcapacity," Fleck said, pointing to immoderate of the galore points of contention betwixt the partners.

One affirmative sign, Fleck said, was confirmation that Chinese President Xi Jinping volition conscionable European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.

There whitethorn besides beryllium other, smaller hints of alteration successful EU-China relations, Lukas Fiala, task coordinator of the China Foresight programme astatine LSE IDEAS, told CNBC.

"The acme tin hardly reset years of economical and geopolitical tensions betwixt the 2 sides," Fiala said, saying that the worsening of EU-China relations had "structural and longer-term" reasons.

EU subordinate states besides person differing views connected China, which makes it hard for the EU to explicit a agreed position, helium added.

"I volition look retired for smaller changes and connection related to export controls connected EVs and uncommon earths during and aft the summit, but bash not expect a large displacement successful the presumption quo," Fiala said.